D041

Calibration of Confidence

BD03 Decision, Judgment & Epistemics
Derived LayerMML-2

Version v1.2.4

Definition

The degree to which confidence tracks actual correctness: higher when right, lower when uncertain or wrong.

Poles

Each HES element is a spectrum, not a category: the Low and High poles describe how it presents at its two extremes, while the Reference marks the typical, everyday middle. The poles map variation across the range — neither end is inherently better or worse.

Low Pole

Overconfidence or underconfidence is chronic; confidence is weakly related to correctness.

High Pole

Confidence is well-calibrated; expresses uncertainty proportionately; avoids false certainty.

Reference

Calibrated in familiar domains, miscalibrated in novelty, status contests, or emotionally charged topics.

Measure

Calibration: gap between confidence and correctness over time.
• Accuracy: correctness rate at different confidence levels.

Measuring Methods

Confidence-tagged predictions with outcomes; calibration curves; domain-by-domain auditing.

Empirical Anchor

Calibration of confidence / confidence calibration (Lichtenstein et al., 1982); overconfidence bias literature; Dunning-Kruger effect (Kruger & Dunning, 1999).

Notes

This is foundational for scientific honesty and decision quality.

Citation

APA

Human Elements System. (2026). Calibration of Confidence (HES Passport D041, v1.2.4). hestable.com. https://hestable.com/passport/D041

BibTeX

@misc{hes_D041, author = {{Human Elements System}}, title = {{Calibration of Confidence}}, year = {2026}, note = {HES Passport D041, v1.2.4}, howpublished = {\url{https://hestable.com/passport/D041}} }